• ISSN: 1674-7461
  • CN: 11-5823/TU
  • 主管:中国科学技术协会
  • 主办:中国图学学会
  • 承办:中国建筑科学研究院有限公司

基于ARIMA-LSTM-XGBoost组合模型对建筑物沉降量的预测

Research on Prediction of Building Settlement Based on ARIMA-LSTM-XGBoost Combined Modeling

  • 摘要: 准确预测建筑物沉降量对于保障结构安全至关重要。针对沉降测量数据稀缺及组合预测模型缺乏加权处理的问题,本文以扬州仪征市CJ06号建筑物为研究对象,对非等距时间序列数据进行多项式拟合,并综合拟合优度、过拟合和可解释性选定适当多项式阶数替代原始数据。基于前140天训练数据和后63天测试数据,构建ARIMA模型捕捉线性特征,并利用LSTM校正其预测残差,结合XGBoost模型预测结果,通过误差倒数法确定组合预测权重。以143d、158d、173d、188d和203d的原始期数为基准,分别评估不同模型预测效果,并采用最大相对误差绝对值和均方误差(MSE)衡量预测精度。结果表明,ARIMA-LSTM-XGBoost组合模型具有更高的预测精度,其最大相对误差绝对值和均方误差分别为1.68%和0.03,明显优于其他模型,能够有效实现建筑物沉降量的高精度预测。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of building settlement is crucial to ensure structural safety. Aiming at the scarcity of settlement measurement data and the lack of weighting treatment in the combined prediction model, this paper takes building CJ06 in Yizheng City, Yangzhou, as the research object, fits polynomials to the non-isometric time-series data and selects appropriate polynomial orders to replace the original data by combining the goodness-of-fit, overfitting and interpretability. Based on the first 140 days of training data and the last 63 days of test data, an ARIMA model is constructed to capture the linear features and correct their prediction residuals using LSTM, and the combined prediction weights are determined by the inverse error method by combining with the prediction results of the XGBoost model. The original periods of 143d, 158d, 173d, 188d and 203d were used as benchmarks to evaluate the prediction effects of different models respectively, and the prediction accuracy was measured by the maximum relative error absolute value and the mean square error (MSE). The results show that the combined ARIMA-LSTM-XGBoost model has higher prediction accuracy, and its maximum relative error absolute value and mean square error (MSE) are 1.68% and 0.03, respectively, which are significantly better than those of the other models, and it can effectively realize the high-precision prediction of building settlement.

     

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