• ISSN: 1674-7461
  • CN: 11-5823/TU
  • 主管:中国科学技术协会
  • 主办:中国图学学会
  • 承办:中国建筑科学研究院有限公司

基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC的城市地下综合管廊建设期风险因素研究

Research on Risk Factors of Urban Underground Comprehensive Pipe Gallery Construction Period Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC

  • 摘要: 本文采用DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC的综合分析框架, 深入剖析城市地下综合管廊建设期风险因素的重要性、层级关系和属性特征, 对风险因素展开系统性研究。首先, 以青岛市为案例对象, 识别并梳理出29个关键风险因素, 通过DEMATEL方法对各因素的影响度、被影响度、原因度及中心度进行定量分析, 研究各因素的重要性程度; 其次, 借助ISM方法梳理各因素间的层级关系, 对因素进行了多级递阶层次结构的划分, 为风险管理提供层次化的视角; 最终, 通过MICMAC分析法对风险因素进行分类, 将其分为自治型、依赖型、联系型及独立型, 以确定对系统影响最大的因素。研究结果表明, 城市地下综合管廊建设期风险因素并非是孤立存在的, 而是相互关联且相互影响的。本文的研究结论为城市地下综合管廊建设阶段的风险管理提供了理论依据, 有助于优化风险管理策略, 降低建设过程中的潜在风险。

     

    Abstract: This paper adopts a comprehensive analysis framework of DEMATEL - ISM - MICMAC to deeply analyze the importance, hierarchical relationships, and attribute characteristics of risk factors during the construction period of urban underground utility tunnels, and conducts a systematic study of these risk factors. Taking Qingdao as a case study, 29 key risk factors are identified and sorted out. Through the DEMATEL method, the influence degree, being - influenced degree, cause degree, and centrality of each factor are quantitatively analyzed to study the importance of each factor. Subsequently, with the help of the ISM method, the hierarchical relationships among the factors are sorted out, and the factors are divided into a multi - level hierarchical structure, providing a hierarchical perspective for risk management. Finally, the risk factors are classified through the MICMAC analysis method into autonomous, dependent, connected, and independent types to determine the factors that have the greatest impact on the system. The research results show that the risk factors during the construction period of urban underground utility tunnels do not exist in isolation but are interrelated and mutually influential. The research conclusions provide a theoretical basis for risk management in the construction stage of urban underground utility tunnels, helping to optimize risk management strategies and reduce potential risks during the construction process.

     

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